3 G's Population (from another thread)

[Braden Campbell]

EDITED NUMBERS BELOW

OK, I think with all the stuff going on in here I lost track of the original point.
I'm still trying to figure out how many planets each galaxy has, OR..... how many stars have any planets at all and if so, how many planets on average.
From that I still need to derive how many have useful mineral or gas resources, how many could produce life, how many currently have life, how many have intelligent life and how many have space-age civilizations.

Did we get any of these numbers figured out yet? I cant keep up.

We are going to assume the following for the sake of argument and simplicity:

* Our Milky Way contains 200 billion stars
* Based on comparisons to the size of our own galaxy, the Corkscrew is 90% as wide but twice as thick, giving it 360 billion stars,
* The Thundercloud is 1/3 as wide as our galaxy, but again, twice as thick, giving it 121 billion stars.
* The Anvil is the same thickness as our galaxy, but only 1/5 as wide, so it would only have 40 billion stars.
* Stellar density is homogenous across the 3 G's (this is just for low numbers)
* We will assume that of those stars, 1% will form a solar system.
* Only 1% of solar systems will have a planet with life on it.

This would mean that the Corkscrew has 360 million "inhabitable" planets, the Thundercloud has 121 million, and the Anvil has 40 million such worlds.

Of those, we are assuming, based on the statistics for the Consortium, that one in every 11,000 life-bearing planets, is able to produce a species that hits the galactic-era level of advancement.

So... in the Corkscrew there would be 32,727 space faring peoples. In the Thundercloud there would be 11,000 space faring races (but note that in my manuscript-in-progress almost all of these species have been killed off by a galactic-wide environmental disaster). In the Anvil there should be 3,636.

So very rough total: there are 47, 363 space faring races in the 3 G's

Edited Feb. 22, 2007

[GhostKnight]

What about races that imploded after their space era? Or those that have yet to enter theirs but have the potential? Plus those that bought or stole it from visitors. And colonization...

[KLM]

* Our Milky Way contain 200 billion stars
* Based on comparisons to the size of our own galaxy, the Corkscrew has 162 billion stars, the Thundercloud has 18 billion stars, and the Anvil has 4 million stars.

Are you sure, that the Anvil is just 4 million? Comparing its
volume to the Thundercloud, it should be more like 4 BILLION.

(but note that in my manuscript-in-progress almost all of these species have been killed off by a galactic-wide environmental disaster).

Or Dominators, Star Hives, Demon Planets, whatever...

Or just look at the Machine People RCC - it mentions at least
two "lost" species by name, and several more, whom the
Machine People cut down to size in retaliation.

So, basically, for every "living" civilisation, there should
be several "extinct" civilisation.

For every EU, there are Roman Empires (include Bizantium and
the Holy Roman Empire), Hellenic States, Persian, Hun, Avar,
Mongol Empires, and a number of smaller cultures
(Pict, Pecheneg, etc.).

All gone now.

Adios
KLM

[Braden Campbell]

The disk of the Milky Way galaxy is about 100,000 light years in diameter (one light year is about 9.5 x 1015 meters), but only about 1000 light years thick.
Our Galaxy contains about 200 billion stars. Most of the stars are located in the disk of our galaxy, which is the site of most of the star formation because it contains lots of gas and dust.

- From, Ask an Astrophysist

The Anvil Galaxy is stated as being 20,000 light-years across, and 1000 light-years thick. Compared to our galaxy, it is 1/5 the size... so might contain roughly 40 billion stars.


Hmm.... guess my math was way for some reason. Well, that's what happens when you stay up all night.

[KLM]

Especially when someone considers, that the volume of a disk
is something like "some constant"*r^2*"height, therefore
if a disk with R radius, has a volume of 1 unit,
then another disk, with R/5 diameter (same height/thickness
for both), has 1/25 unit (0,04) of volume.

So, it is like 8 billion.

I guess, go get some sleep, and start again

Adios
KLM

[Greyaxe]

One thing to consider as well, the center of a galaxy may contain the greatest number of stars % wise, but have the fewest habitable planets or lifeforms due to galactic events like nebula, plasma storms, black holes etc, I would say reduce the habitable planets in the Halo to 40% of the total number of planets available, maybe less.

[Greyaxe]

I have been reviewing your formula Braden and we need to add two more variables.

We know the % of stars that will form planets
We know the % of planets that will be habitable (form life of some kind)

What we don’t know % of habitable planets will form intelligent life. I would say it will be low 0.5%

That reduces the total number of species the galaxy will produce (ever in the history of the galaxy) to 23681.

The next thing to do will be to decide which of these species are space faring at this moment in history, bear in mind some races have died out some have yet to evolve. We know from the Anvil Galaxy book there are 231 space faring races in the CCW. Using this as an estimate the CCW retains about 1/3 of the total population of the 3G so we could safely estimate approximately 700 space faring races in the 3g. With approximately 23000 which have either died out, or have not made it to space faring as yet. That is a far more manageable number.

[KLM]

There are a dozen or so species which in themselves are
making the 90% of the Halo's populace.

But hey, having the English Native speakers being dominant
in the USA doesn't mean, that in even the 'states there aren't
other cultures.

Actually there are dozens of native nations to begin with.

So, those cultures, who made it to the CCW, TGE or the UWW
are headlong before the others in population. Just give for
example a hundred years to the T'Zee to grow their numbers
unchecked...

Also, it looks like that on our Earth it was pure luck, that
we (ie. homo sapiens sapiens) are the only intelligent
species (at least it looks like)...

Were the continents a bit more separated, there would be
more human races.

Were the Mars a bit bigger and closer to the sun, there would be
life (maybe even intelligent life).

Then there are those species, who depleted their planet's
resources, cut back to a supportable population based on
renewable sources and after a dozen or so generations
of decay/stagnation, when the culture has deeply rooted
philisophy of "living in harmony with nature, upkeeping balance"
(and other euphemisms for stagnation ) they just
discover CG and FTL. They will not rush to the stars...

And so on.

So, for every race, who made an empire, there are
like a dozen, who did not made it (yet), and like
four dozens who will never make it (=extinct).

Adios
KLM

[Greyaxe]

Based on your statements the estimate of 700 FTL societies sounds reasonable. Other societies have done what you have listed in your examples.

[KLM]

There could be "just" 700 species in the 3 Galaxies, but
what I wanted to prove, that there are more of them,
who are capable of FTL... Probably around several thousand,
maybe even ten thousands and more.

Adios
KLM

[Greyaxe]

Actually what i said was there may be 700 space faring species (spreading through space like a virus) but I agreed with you there are probably hundreds or more that while space capable have decided not to go exploring or have never left their solar system.

I wonder if any of these species comrise members of the big 4
1. CCW
2.TGE
3.UWW
4.Golgan

[Braden Campbell]

OK...I have made a slight reference to these numbers in my current writing project. It's called the Purn Equation (the 3 G's equivilent of the Drake Equation).

[BTW--> It would look like this: N=S x fp x fl x fi x fg]

And you all do realise that the greater we reduce the number of advanced space faring races running around today, the more violent the Three Galaxies becomes?

If there are 700 races going strong and 23,000 who didn't make it for whatever reason (plague, M-rad wave, asteroid impact, star went nova, invaded, assimilated, can't figure out gravitonics, got eaten, de-evolved, blew themelves up, etc), then the odds of a species surving to Advanced Space Age is 1 in 33.

[Braden Campbell]

Based on your statements the estimate of 700 FTL societies sounds reasonable. ..

Ah, the wonders of going back to the source!

In Phase World, original book, top of page 50, CJ says, "The Three Galaxies contian over a thousand space faring races, and perhaps two or three times that number in sentient races of lesser technological development."

[Braden Campbell]

So... here it is, the Purn Equation, complete with values that not only make sense, but also fit the fluff text. We now have a fairly good idea just how many planets there are in the Three Galaxies, and of those, how many have life on them. The numbers may surprise you. They did me...

The number of space faring races is represented as follows:

N = S x fp x fl x fi x fg

S is the number of stars in a galaxy
fp is the fraction of the previous number which develop planets
fl is the fraction of the previous number which develop life
fi is the fraction of the previous number which develop intelligent life
fg is the fraction of the previous number which develop a galactic culture

Now, since CJ says there are about 1000 space faring species, we have a value for N. We can now work backwards. Here are the values for the variable. This is a grand total for all three of the galaxies:

1000 = 521 Billion x .006 x 1% x (1/1000) x 1/3

Some explanation:
* 521 billion is the rough total number of stars in all three galaxies based on the guestimates in my first post.

* of those, only one half of 1% will form planets. This value is a LOT lower than I would have thought.

* for every planet that develops life, only 1 in every thousand seem to develop intelligent life. Again, this is a surprise.

* the 1/3 value at the end is based on CJ's writing telling us that for every space faring race there are two or three races that are less technologically developed.

CONCLUSIONS:
# of intelligent races in the 3 G's --> 3,120
# of space faring races in the Three Galaxies --> 1, 040
# of intelligent but less develop races in the Three G's --> 2,080


So, there you have it.

[Greyaxe]

CONCLUSIONS:
# of intelligent races in the 3 G's --> 3,120
# of space faring races in the Three Galaxies --> 1, 040
# of intelligent but less develop races in the Three G's --> 2,080

Bravo!, my estimates of 700 weren't too far off.

[KLM]

CONCLUSIONS:
# of intelligent races in the 3 G's --> 3,200
# of space faring races in the Three Galaxies --> 1,066
# of intelligent but less develop races in the Three G's --> 2134

Bravo!, my estimates of 700 weren't too far off.

Mind you, this numer probably only means the HALO
races, as per DMB2, page 50.

Adios
KLM

[Braden Campbell]

No, for this math we assuming that stellar density is the same throughout the entire galaxy (which is not true in real life, but we're Gamers, not astrophysics majors).

If you wanted, you could now divide these numbers up further between the Halo regions and the Interiors.

[KLM]

[
In Phase World, original book, top of page 50, CJ says, "The Three Galaxies contian over a thousand space faring races, and perhaps two or three times that number in sentient races of lesser technological development."

And later:
DMB2, page 50 "The Demographics of the three galaxies":
"...these estimates do not account for billions of sentient that live on wolrds considered to be "uninhabitable" - uninhabitable for carbon based life forms, that is. Contact with these very alien cultures is limited, so their exact numbers are unknown".

This idea was later refined into the Halo/Treshold/Core stuff,
plus... Well, I do not know, whether the few hundred Dominators
left alive (hopefully) are considered a species or not for the
above account. And probably there are a few more "near extinct"
species, for example a civilisation, which is wiped out, but a
sleeper ship of theirs is still on its way.
Add the fact, that Center probably have more, than 4 thousand
intelligent species due to dimensional gates, so I guess the
Dominators and other "near extinct" species are not counted.

Adios
KLM

[Greyaxe]

Dont forget these numbers are from the 3G only, Center has aliens from across the megaverse. Not necessarily native to 3G at all.

[Aramanthus]

Those are some very interesting numbers. I thought the formula was actually called something else. I'll have to look it up. I know that a formula that was similar was located in a book I own, but is buried in my storeage area.

[Braden Campbell]

DMB2, page 50 "The Demographics of the three galaxies":
"...these estimates do not account for billions of sentient that live on wolrds considered to be "uninhabitable" - uninhabitable for carbon based life forms, that is. Contact with these very alien cultures is limited, so their exact numbers are unknown".

See, it does do good to go back to he Source. You just have to read the whole thing

Well, I guess the Purn Equation does not take into consideration "crazy worlds" that might develop "crazy life"... so yes, I guess it only referrs to Halo and Halo-like races.

[Aramanthus]

That also depends on the age and color of said stars. Certain stars should not have any sort or very little life capacity for carbon based life forms.

[Greyaxe]

The variables of what type of stars produce planets and of thoes which planets produce Carbon based life (life as we know It) has already been accounted for.

[Braden Campbell]

Here is a breakdown by galaxy.

Corkscrew
# stars = 360 billion
# stars w/ planets = 2 billion, 160 million
# planets with life on them = 2, 160,000
# planets with intelligent life on them = 2,160
# of "galactic-era" intelligent species = 720

Thundercloud
# stars = 121 billion
# stars w/ planets = 726 million
# planets with life on them = 726,000
# planets with intelligent life on them = 726
# of "galactic-era" intelligent species = 242

Anvil
# stars = 40 billion
# stars w/ planets = 240 million
# planets with life on them = 240,000
# planets with intelligent life on them = 240
# of "galactic-era" intelligent species = 80

[Aramanthus]

Those are very interesting numbers Braden. That looks like the results from that formula.

[glitterboy2098]

hmm... would that formula be considered conservative?....

probably. the fp, fl, and fi seem a bit low. phase world seems to be a very star trek/star wars-ish setting where planets can be found around just about any star, life is common, and intellegence is almost a given where there is life.

so what would the results look like if: (note: still conservitive here)
fp = .01 (planets 10 times more common)
fl = 10% (life 60% more common)
fi = 1/100 (intellegence 10x more common)

521 Billion x .01 x 10% x (1/100) x 1/3 = 1,736,667
quite a different result.

Braden is free to use whatever figures he wants, but perhaps a neat bit of fluff could come of this.

if the formula is mentioned in the book, add a few lines about how the specific values of the variables are in dispute, and that alternate calculations have ranged as high as 2 million galactic age civilizations waiting to be discovered.

that way, Gm's don't feel constrained by the feeling that adding a new race might go against the #'s in the book.

[Aramanthus]

There is this formula, I've seen which is very similiar to the one Braden demonstarted. I don't remember the originator, but he's American. And Carl Sagan used his furmula on Cosmos to come up with certain numbers. But the researcher who came up with this formula is almost a common name.

[Aramanthus]

Yes, it was! I can't find my copy.

[Aramanthus]

I know it's in my storeage area. I know it's in a box in there. I can not remember which box or stack of stuff.

[Aramanthus]

I know which box it actually might be in. And it's at the bottom of a stack of boxes that is about 7 foot tall. And it's in the corner surrounded on two sides by stacks that same size.

[Aramanthus]

I have to stack them that high to be able to get them into the storeage area.

[Aramanthus]

The box is not beyond my reach. It is simply buried under a stack.

[Aramanthus]

Just not enough time in RL to actually dig it out in the near time.

[Aramanthus]

At least I can't find the time at the present to go and dig it up. Maybe someday soon!

[Aramanthus]

I'll have one too!!!

[Braden Campbell]

if the formula is mentioned in the book, add a few lines about how the specific values of the variables are in dispute, and that alternate calculations have ranged as high as 2 million galactic age civilizations waiting to be discovered.

Done.

[Braden Campbell]

No, Max. 2 million across the whole of the Three Galaxies.

Here's what I actually wrote:
The question often arises: just how many intelligent species are there in the Three Galaxies? There is no easy way to come up with an answer, although many have tried. The most commonly used “yardstick” is the formula put forth by the Noro astronomer Tayhop Purn. Purn’s Equation supposes that of all the stars in the local galaxies, only one half of one percent will form a system of planets. Within those systems, only one out of every one hundred (1%) will have a planet which develops life. Of all the planets that develop life, it seems only one in every thousand develops intelligent life. And for every three worlds that develop intelligent life, only one of those will rise to become an “advanced space age” species.

When all the figures are tabulated, the Equation estimates that there should be 3120 intelligent races within the Three Galaxies; 1040 advanced space-faring ones, and 2080 less-developed cultures. However, not everyone agrees with Purn, citing that the percentages he uses are far too low. Other mathematicians have calculations which state that there could be as many as two million sentient species out there. They criticize Purn for not taking into account the galactic interiors, and of being “carbon-
centric”.

Regardless, the Equation seems to be fairly accurate, at least when dealing with the Halo regions of the Corkscrew and Anvil galaxies. When applied to the Thundercloud though, the numbers are way off. There should be at least 242 advanced races, but so far explorers have found less than twenty. There are plenty of intelligent species living in the Thundercloud alright (over 700 at last estimate), but for some reason most of them have developmental levels that range from Stone Age Primitives to a Pre-Industrial Age. It is now commonly thought that some kind of galactic-wide environmental disaster took place in the Thundercloud within the past 50,000 years; an event which set back or severely stunted the development of most intelligent life within it.

A few of the most notable Thundercloud locals are detailed below, but Game Masters should feel free to come up with their own using the Alien Creation Tables found on page 104 of the main Phase World book. Unless noted otherwise, it is assumed that all races can speak, read, and write some kind of native language at 90% or better.

[Aramanthus]

It looks pretty good Braden!