1) if a 17-20 roll capable of hitting necks/heads could still fail to surpass AR 14 (a -2 to -6 to strike could do it)
2) how difficult it is for a natural 20 to dodge to beat a natural 20 to strike ("defenders win ties" can still take the modified rolls into consideration)
3) whether or not you miss, because per pg 58 #9 a 1-4 on a called shot to a limb that is grabbling a friend, has a 50% chance of hitting your friend.
4) whether or not you miss, because per pg 58 #10 if you shoot a zombie with a shotgun (main body only, no called shots) it breaks the the zombie's grip if you surpass the AR, or on a subsequent natural 5-20 (75% of the time) if you rolled 5-14 so long as the zombie doesn't surpass your roll on his D20. Weapons besides shotguns can do this so long as it is the defender doing it, shotguns-only for teammates.
So I was checking through the book and trying to find ways to get penalties. I'm ignoring anything that halves bonuses or gives no bonuses, because that doesn't impede a normal person who has no bonuses to hit, except for the close-range bonuses on 182/183 but those only apply to firearms.
INSANITIES are a great source, and make sense for this game since it should be unbalancing as a survivor:
- Pg 166 -3 to strike with guns due to autonomic reaction
Pg 166 -1 to strike if depressed (manic depression)
Pg 168 -1 to strike if you have a psycho reliance
Additionally there can be biological reasons:
- Pg 31 -1 to strike from a severe infection
Pg 172 -4 to strike if disoriented while drunk
Then there are modifiers based on the behavior of whoever you're attacking:
- -1 to strike if they're moving
-1 to strike if they're being evasive or zig-zagging (zombies don't seem to be very coordinated so I'd always treat them as zigzagging)
I think the above 2 are just for guns, but I'd like to get the -3 from autonomic, so I'm going with the assumption of using guns, especially for the following reasons of close range penalties within 20ft (they're even worse with longer range, I'm being generous!)
- Pg 112 -1 to hit with Flare Gun
Pg 113:
-2 to hit with Rocket Flare (there's also a -3 at the start so this might even be a total of -5, kinda confusing)
-3 to hit with Distress Signal Kit
Pg
-2 to hit with a Mini-Signal Cartridge
When I tally this up, that's -5 from 3 insanities, -5 from being an infected drunk, -2 from zombie movement, so -12 to hit with guns. This becomes -13 with an FG, -14 with a M-SC, -15 with a DSK, and maybe -17 with RFs.
This is before tacking on the final nail of the -10 to strike which Blindness gives, bringing us to between -23 and -27 to strike with these improvised ranged weapons used to set zombies afire.
Altogether... a great illustration of how penalties could be incredibly influential, and how they open up a lot of interesting combat possibilities when it comes to natural rolls and armor ratings.