Differences in computer tech.

[keir451]

OK. We all remebere the RMB description of computers and how ee now laugh at it when compared to what many of may have today. So I wanted to kind of showcase the difference between comuters of the '80s vs today and ask "Where do YOU think the tech would be by 2098?'.
Here's an ad for a computer from around 1980; http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/compute ... ds-1980s/2
Now here's one from today; http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olstemplate ... cat0501000

Now how powerful do you think comuters might be by 2098, by the time of the CS?

[rat_bastard]

Are you saying you are not a cyberpunk?

[ShadowLogan]

The rule of thumb is a doubling in capacity/power every 18months however eventually they will run into physics barriers without changing their approach. Which we are approaching, so the technology base will be different for them to exceede those limits, though for simplicity lets assume these tech bases will simply continue that trend.

From current date to 2098, (2098-2014 = ) 84years, there would be a doubling every 1.5years OR computational power is going to be doubled 56 times between now and the Great Cataclysm (approximately since I don't know how close we are to the next doubling and how that relates to GC date). So if top of the line is 1Ghz processor (I know its more like 3Ghz and option for multi-core commercially, but go with me) that would work out to a ~7.2e^16 Ghz processor core (or multiple this number by the core processor speed in Ghz).

However it is believed that the 1.5year rate will shift to 3year rate after 2013, using that results in only 28 doublings or each 1Ghz core processor of today being equal to 268,435,456 Ghz processor core in 2098.

[keir451]

Are you saying you are not a cyberpunk?

Me? Nope. toh' I do respect the mirrored shades.

[keir451]

The rule of thumb is a doubling in capacity/power every 18months however eventually they will run into physics barriers without changing their approach. Which we are approaching, so the technology base will be different for them to exceede those limits, though for simplicity lets assume these tech bases will simply continue that trend.

From current date to 2098, (2098-2014 = ) 84years, there would be a doubling every 1.5years OR computational power is going to be doubled 56 times between now and the Great Cataclysm (approximately since I don't know how close we are to the next doubling and how that relates to GC date). So if top of the line is 1Ghz processor (I know its more like 3Ghz and option for multi-core commercially, but go with me) that would work out to a ~7.2e^16 Ghz processor core (or multiple this number by the core processor speed in Ghz).

However it is believed that the 1.5year rate will shift to 3year rate after 2013, using that results in only 28 doublings or each 1Ghz core processor of today being equal to 268,435,456 Ghz processor core in 2098.

Alright, so what if we take into account a second Cold War, as described in CE? Might that not change the rate of progression again? Make it faster as everyone tries to keep up w/everyone else? Also I rather speculate that we might be looking at quantum databases by then.

[guardiandashi]

The rule of thumb is a doubling in capacity/power every 18months however eventually they will run into physics barriers without changing their approach. Which we are approaching, so the technology base will be different for them to exceede those limits, though for simplicity lets assume these tech bases will simply continue that trend.

From current date to 2098, (2098-2014 = ) 84years, there would be a doubling every 1.5years OR computational power is going to be doubled 56 times between now and the Great Cataclysm (approximately since I don't know how close we are to the next doubling and how that relates to GC date). So if top of the line is 1Ghz processor (I know its more like 3Ghz and option for multi-core commercially, but go with me) that would work out to a ~7.2e^16 Ghz processor core (or multiple this number by the core processor speed in Ghz).

However it is believed that the 1.5year rate will shift to 3year rate after 2013, using that results in only 28 doublings or each 1Ghz core processor of today being equal to 268,435,456 Ghz processor core in 2098.

Alright, so what if we take into account a second Cold War, as described in CE? Might that not change the rate of progression again? Make it faster as everyone tries to keep up w/everyone else? Also I rather speculate that we might be looking at quantum databases by then.

I know there are ~3-4ghz computers available, and also that that has been the approximate speed limit for at least 5 years before you have to get into extreme cooling solutions (such as liquid nitrogen) with liquid nitrogen cooling I believe they have pushed it to ~7-8ghz stable processing.

so I am going to say I suspect that barring a new development in cooling tech, ~4-5ghz is the speed limit on clock speed. or a massive change in computer processor technology.

where processors will continue to get better is in processor width, and or cores I suspect.

I can see newer computers becoming dual cores as standard, then quad, then octal, hexicore etc.

of course there is also the argument that we have already gotten to the point that computers have more capacity than the "average" user needs which is why there is the proliferation of "lower powered" computers (tablets) and such, as they are "good enough"

I will use a car analogy for a moment, if all you need is a ~100hp Honda accord, or ford escort equivalent, why bother buying a dodge challenger with its 400+ hp motor.

note I am not saying that computers won't continue to evolve, I just suspect they are going to start becoming more and more shadowrun esq IE where everyone has an, or multiple computers, many of them possibly even integrated into apparel or the equivalent.

[kronos]

With the mention of physic barriers.. there might be a period where speed plateaus, like the Pentium barrier years ago.. problems going over.. I think it was somewhere around the 300 to 500 mhz level it slowed for awhile, then jumped up to 900, then slowed again before ghz level was broken.
So tech could go more efficiency and shrinking size for many years before speed level broken again.
Or when speed plateaus, other areas of computers take a huge leap forward to take advantage of the new power and speed.. like hologram tech takes leaps forward, new programming system.. like instead of binary we switch to tri-ary? (is that even a word?) which now allows the computer to do MORE things or AIs became far more human like.. computer fuzzy logic is near on par with humans (A.R.C.H.I.E. project anyone)

[keir451]

With the mention of physic barriers.. there might be a period where speed plateaus, like the Pentium barrier years ago.. problems going over.. I think it was somewhere around the 300 to 500 mhz level it slowed for awhile, then jumped up to 900, then slowed again before ghz level was broken.
So tech could go more efficiency and shrinking size for many years before speed level broken again.
Or when speed plateaus, other areas of computers take a huge leap forward to take advantage of the new power and speed.. like hologram tech takes leaps forward, new programming system.. like instead of binary we switch to tri-ary? (is that even a word?) which now allows the computer to do MORE things or AIs became far more human like.. computer fuzzy logic is near on par with humans (A.R.C.H.I.E. project anyone)

I don't think computers, no matter how they're designed, will be non-binary, at least in the sense of "on-off" as that's all that binary really represents. No matter if it's quantum or a neural net systems like ARCHIE they're either "on" or they're "off" there'll be differences in the programming language as it is written according to the results you want, but that and the speed at which they process might be about it.

[flatline]

The physical architecture is largely hidden from the software, so it doesn't really matter if the underlying hardware represents 2 distinct states (aka binary), 3, 4, or 10. There have been non-binary architectures in the past and there are likely non-binary architectures in use today for specialized purposes. From a software perspective, it makes no difference.

From the hardware perspective, 2-state physical processes offer some convenient advantages since they are easily modeled (most processors are designed by software, so this is important) and the 2 states can be easily separated so that misreads aren't created by random electrical noise in the transistor (this becomes very important as we make transistors smaller and smaller). However, if someone invents a way to get greater density or efficiency or economy using 3 or more states, you can bet that new architectures will take advantage of it. And the only software that will care will be what actually runs directly on the micro-controller.

--flatline

[ShadowLogan]

Alright, so what if we take into account a second Cold War, as described in CE? Might that not change the rate of progression again? Make it faster as everyone tries to keep up w/everyone else? Also I rather speculate that we might be looking at quantum databases by then.

It might, but I would not count on it. Some of the slow down from 1.5 to 3years doesn't have to do with demand for more powerful systems, but rather the technology/science involved running into those barriers. So the reality is you might end up with an average between 1.5 and 3 years, but it might still be closer to 3years without something to help leap frog the technologies in place (like a crashed alien starship with FTL capacities) that allow one to skip generations of technology.

I don't think computers, no matter how they're designed, will be non-binary, at least in the sense of "on-off" as that's all that binary really represents.

I wouldn't count on that as there are non-binary systems: quantum computers (IINM), and analog computers come to mind that don't fit the basic "on-off" model of thinking. While I don't see analog coming back as a main force in the industry, quantum computers might become a new standard over digital.

[Zer0 Kay]

With the mention of physic barriers.. there might be a period where speed plateaus, like the Pentium barrier years ago.. problems going over.. I think it was somewhere around the 300 to 500 mhz level it slowed for awhile, then jumped up to 900, then slowed again before ghz level was broken.
So tech could go more efficiency and shrinking size for many years before speed level broken again.
Or when speed plateaus, other areas of computers take a huge leap forward to take advantage of the new power and speed.. like hologram tech takes leaps forward, new programming system.. like instead of binary we switch to tri-ary? (is that even a word?) which now allows the computer to do MORE things or AIs became far more human like.. computer fuzzy logic is near on par with humans (A.R.C.H.I.E. project anyone)

I don't think computers, no matter how they're designed, will be non-binary, at least in the sense of "on-off" as that's all that binary really represents. No matter if it's quantum or a neural net systems like ARCHIE they're either "on" or they're "off" there'll be differences in the programming language as it is written according to the results you want, but that and the speed at which they process might be about it.

Not true, binary is only necessary because the circuitry is 0V or .5V off or on. The idea of fuzzy logic is that a computer has a third state. Yes, no, maybe. The other barrier that computers have is the heat csused by the voltage requirement to do a 1. So if they can produce astable power source that could do .005 and .0025 and isolate a perfect 0 then we can use a base 3 system. Heck the more isolated voltages they have the faster the system. So figure mow in a 32 bit system we can transfer 32 1s or 0s.
Depending on the instruction set it could be many things but for ASCII it's the equivallent of 4 letters. From 00 to FF in hex or 0000 0000 to 1111 1111 in binary, which is from 0 to 255 in decimal per letter. Soif we manage to make a computer that can "think" in decimal, even if ascii gets used it would only take three "bits" per letter instead of 8, more than doubling your speed. Now that is just for the processing side it may be harder for storage media... unless they convert to holograpic storage on crystals. And i dont mean storing a picture on one but storing a data image. I don't think they've come up wiyh a way to rewrite to them, but last i read they were successful on worm crystals.

[sirkermittsg]

It is difficult to say how powerful computers will be. the reality is that the ENTIRE encyclopedia britanica can now fit on a thumb drive along with hundreds of others books. things like the universal translator you see in star trek is absolutely plausible to believe it will exist. multiple cores, various forms of artificial Intelligence, lots of things are plausible.

[Zer0 Kay]

It is difficult to say how powerful computers will be. the reality is that the ENTIRE encyclopedia britanica can now fit on a thumb drive along with hundreds of others books. things like the universal translator you see in star trek is absolutely plausible to believe it will exist. multiple cores, various forms of artificial Intelligence, lots of things are plausible.

So in the Realm of A.I. we'd have to keep ARCHIE special. So would it be that he is a Neural A.I. in that he is built like a human brain capable of making some abstract decisions based on data rather than our standard A.I. which would make decisions based on a preset number of responses?

[Dog_O_War]

This is my take on computer technology in Rifts.

The average consumer has access to technology of the equivalent to what we have today, at minimum, and that technology is cheaper and more powerful and has a larger memory.

Then you have the actual future-tech computers; the semi-artificial intelligences and true A.I.s like ArchieIII, as well as sophisticated military hardwares and programs for things like keeping your PA and giant robots moving even though you've lost 80% of your MDC (and likely have damaged electronics).

Effectively, if it involves something non-existant in our modern-day world, like nuclear-power-plant-packing powered armours, then there is likely a future-tech computer there to maintain said thing.

What this means is that the computer tech in Rifts advances and evolves as our modern-day tech advances and evolves. Today we have computer-watches (that aren't just a calculator), therefore, in Rifts they also have computer watches, except those watches are better than what is possible today, by today's standards - if for no other reason than simplicities' sake.

This is taking into account that some areas have been described as being stuck in the 1950s for stylistic purposes; these places have advanced computers, but they're still getting the power for those computers from an old design of a coal power-plant, because coal is cheap and plentiful, nobody is worried about pollution, etc. etc.

[kaid]

We know that some of the big cities like the tech cities in japan and the CS have basically cyberspace or something very like it including head jacks that allow direct connection to the computers for the users brain. I try to not quantify with hard numbers things like processor speeds/hard drive space in my games mainly because anything we can guess probably would fall short. They did a reasonably good job trying to guess how powerful computers would be when rifts was first introduced by throwing out some "huge" storage sizes for some computer devices that we have already more than gone past.

One thing to note though for all the increases in storage size and computer speed we have also seen increases in programs requirements and size. The faster and more storage systems have the less optimized or more bulky programs become. Back in the day we did not even have hard drives and ran programs off of floppies the programs had to be heavily optimized and tiny to work. As time goes on the quality of the programs get better and better but require more and more resources.


This is why when players comment why can their mechs gun camera only hold x amount of video when even today you could potentially hold more I tend to go with the video or images being stored is just super super high def. Heck just look at the new super high def standard being worked on that would makes one movie take 4 blu ray disks to hold it.

[kronos]

We know that some of the big cities like the tech cities in japan and the CS have basically cyberspace or something very like it including head jacks that allow direct connection to the computers for the users brain. I try to not quantify with hard numbers things like processor speeds/hard drive space in my games mainly because anything we can guess probably would fall short. They did a reasonably good job trying to guess how powerful computers would be when rifts was first introduced by throwing out some "huge" storage sizes for some computer devices that we have already more than gone past.

One thing to note though for all the increases in storage size and computer speed we have also seen increases in programs requirements and size. The faster and more storage systems have the less optimized or more bulky programs become. Back in the day we did not even have hard drives and ran programs off of floppies the programs had to be heavily optimized and tiny to work. As time goes on the quality of the programs get better and better but require more and more resources.


This is why when players comment why can their mechs gun camera only hold x amount of video when even today you could potentially hold more I tend to go with the video or images being stored is just super super high def. Heck just look at the new super high def standard being worked on that would makes one movie take 4 blu ray disks to hold it.

I agree with this. For all we know, the gun camera isn't just recording a visual.. but could also be storing information like muzzle velocity, range to target, wind direction and speed, and anything else that the sensors of the mech can record, included in the gun camera 'footage' for review later.

[Zer0 Kay]

We know that some of the big cities like the tech cities in japan and the CS have basically cyberspace or something very like it including head jacks that allow direct connection to the computers for the users brain. I try to not quantify with hard numbers things like processor speeds/hard drive space in my games maiInly because anything we can guess probably would fall short. They did a reasonably good job trying to guess how powerful computers would be when rifts was first introduced by throwing out some "huge" storage sizes for some computer devices that we have already more than gone past.

One thing to note though for all the increases in storage size and computer speed we have also seen increases in programs requirements and size. The faster and more storage systems have the less optimized or more bulky programs become. Back in the day we did not even have hard drives and ran programs off of floppies the programs had to be heavily optimized and tiny to work. As time goes on the quality of the programs get better and better but require more and more resources.


This is why when players comment why can their mechs gun camera only hold x amount of video when even today you could potentially hold more I tend to go with the video or images being stored is just super super high def. Heck just look at the new super high def standard being worked on that would makes one movie take 4 blu ray disks to hold it.

I agree with this. For all we know, the gun camera isn't just recording a visual.. but could also be storing information like muzzle velocity, range to target, wind direction and speed, and anything else that the sensors of the mech can record, included in the gun camera 'footage' for review later.

Hmm gun camera doubles as black box and is such high quality and quick as to be able to see the bullet travel to the target amd zoom in to macro woth no pixeling. Multiplexing, so what's that look like in thermal? Zoom in there what was that at 10 meters? The mage is casting a lightning bolt. Wait whats that? Uh it's a speck of dust.

[dragonfett]

With the mention of physic barriers.. there might be a period where speed plateaus, like the Pentium barrier years ago.. problems going over.. I think it was somewhere around the 300 to 500 mhz level it slowed for awhile, then jumped up to 900, then slowed again before ghz level was broken.
So tech could go more efficiency and shrinking size for many years before speed level broken again.
Or when speed plateaus, other areas of computers take a huge leap forward to take advantage of the new power and speed.. like hologram tech takes leaps forward, new programming system.. like instead of binary we switch to tri-ary? (is that even a word?) which now allows the computer to do MORE things or AIs became far more human like.. computer fuzzy logic is near on par with humans (A.R.C.H.I.E. project anyone)

I don't think computers, no matter how they're designed, will be non-binary, at least in the sense of "on-off" as that's all that binary really represents. No matter if it's quantum or a neural net systems like ARCHIE they're either "on" or they're "off" there'll be differences in the programming language as it is written according to the results you want, but that and the speed at which they process might be about it.

Not true, binary is only necessary because the circuitry is 0V or .5V off or on. The idea of fuzzy logic is that a computer has a third state. Yes, no, maybe. The other barrier that computers have is the heat csused by the voltage requirement to do a 1. So if they can produce astable power source that could do .005 and .0025 and isolate a perfect 0 then we can use a base 3 system. Heck the more isolated voltages they have the faster the system. So figure mow in a 32 bit system we can transfer 32 1s or 0s.
Depending on the instruction set it could be many things but for ASCII it's the equivallent of 4 letters. From 00 to FF in hex or 0000 0000 to 1111 1111 in binary, which is from 0 to 255 in decimal per letter. Soif we manage to make a computer that can "think" in decimal, even if ascii gets used it would only take three "bits" per letter instead of 8, more than doubling your speed. Now that is just for the processing side it may be harder for storage media... unless they convert to holograpic storage on crystals. And i dont mean storing a picture on one but storing a data image. I don't think they've come up wiyh a way to rewrite to them, but last i read they were successful on worm crystals.

While traditional computer architecture will probably never be capable of 3 state processing, that type of processing would be possible with quantum computers. Here is a link to a Wikipedia article explaining it in more detail.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computer