Exodus

[mech798]

Okay, here's an AU idea.

Instead of engaging in Operation: Custer's last stand, Gloval comes up with a different plan. Before Dolza's fleet arrives, he and Breetai land on earth and grab everyone and everything they can. After all, they HAVE the SDF-1 and the protoculture matrix*, and even assuming they can't take all of the ships, Breetai's fleet has a LOT of space lift. When Dolza does show up, it's to meet a suicidal rear guard of those ships that couldn't or wouldn't leave.

Earth is destroyed, but A not inconsiderable number of humans and zentraedi have now escaped. They have to find another world, and deal with the Invid and Masters's while they're at it.


* I never liked the "we can't find the protoculture matrix". they had running. Zor sent it TO mankind or at least away-- if he'd wanted to hide it forever a really big bomb would have dfone that. That being the case, he also had to have known that anyone who got it would have the universes biggest target painted on them, so it seems rather idiotic to not give them some way to quickly use it-- and the SDF-1 is big, but not THAT big, and over the coures of a 10- year rerfit every cubic centimeter would have been looked at.

[ShadowLogan]

Instead of engaging in Operation: Custer's last stand, Gloval comes up with a different plan. Before Dolza's fleet arrives, he and Breetai land on earth and grab everyone and everything they can. After all, they HAVE the SDF-1 and the protoculture matrix*, and even assuming they can't take all of the ships, Breetai's fleet has a LOT of space lift. When Dolza does show up, it's to meet a suicidal rear guard of those ships that couldn't or wouldn't leave.

It isn't just about available volume, you have to consider various life support requirements to. You have to consider things like heat management, and consumable air supply.

Gloval could still be hamstrung by his superiors at the UEDC in regards to what he could and could not do.

I never liked the "we can't find the protoculture matrix". they had running. Zor sent it TO mankind or at least away-- if he'd wanted to hide it forever a really big bomb would have dfone that. That being the case, he also had to have known that anyone who got it would have the universes biggest target painted on them, so it seems rather idiotic to not give them some way to quickly use it-- and the SDF-1 is big, but not THAT big, and over the coures of a 10- year rerfit every cubic centimeter would have been looked at.

We can't be sure that Zor sent it to Mankind, it might have been someone else. Zor (or whoever sent the ship to Earth) might not have intended for it to be recovered, but rather to seed a target world. Recall that ~30years after the crash the FoL site.

[mech798]

True, but the problem is that it's hard to explain why nobody even looked-- and the zentraedi were told to get the battlefortress, but I'd assume that the masters would at least tell them what parts NOT to shoot.

As for the size, don't forget that zentraedi are vastly larger than humans with concurrently vast lifesupport needs. Their shipsprobably have a very forgiving lifesupport envelope.

[ShadowLogan]

True, but the problem is that it's hard to explain why nobody even looked-- and the zentraedi were told to get the battlefortress, but I'd assume that the masters would at least tell them what parts NOT to shoot.

That assumes the Masters knew where it was on the ship itself. Plus the Zentreadi do make an observation upon first seeing it that could make information like that out of date given the Zentreadi know the SDF-1 was remodeled (per Breeta/Exeedore exchange) so even if they knew where not to shoot before, might not at this point.

As for the size, don't forget that zentraedi are vastly larger than humans with concurrently vast lifesupport needs. Their shipsprobably have a very forgiving lifesupport envelope.

If we where talking about adding a few humans there wouldn't be an issue, but if you are doing a massive evacuation, those requirements for the entire human population to be carried will go up drastically if the Zent. remain on board. Available Room isn't the issue with putting a massive human-sized object population into a Zentreadi ship, its the requirements to keep them alive and well that are the issue.

[taalismn]

Zor was a jerk.

[Seto Kaiba]

Instead of engaging in Operation: Custer's last stand, Gloval comes up with a different plan. Before Dolza's fleet arrives, he and Breetai land on earth and grab everyone and everything they can. After all, they HAVE the SDF-1 and the protoculture matrix*, and even assuming they can't take all of the ships, Breetai's fleet has a LOT of space lift.

Er... I can see a lot of ways in which that would end badly.

Assuming, of course, that Breetai's forces were willing to put aside their warrior pride and run away, they'd probably end up embroiled in a shooting war with the Earth Forces when they attempted a landing to take on "passengers". I mean, they're up against an Earth Government that thinks the Dolza's fleet isn't nearly as big as Gloval claimed, and who'd be practically guaranteed to interpret it as 1. an invasion and 2. a mass abduction. That's going to merit a MASSIVE military response... and they'd basically have to force people onto the ships at gunpoint because the general populace hadn't been told about a massive alien attack on Macross Island or anything like that. They'd be facing a revolt by the population taken aboard the ships pretty much instantly.

Of course, if Breetai's forces aren't having any of that running away nonsense, they might finish off the SDF-1 and Breetai before the Dolza even gets there.

Then, of course, there's the question of "Can they even run away successfully?". We know from the series that it's entirely possible to follow folding ships, and Dolza's rather better equipped for a long chase or a stand-up fight. The Invid probably wouldn't have time to get involved, when the escaping ships (be they few or many) would make relatively easy marks for a particularly pissed-off Zentradi main fleet since they have no viable means of resupply and mostly beat-up warships, while Dolza has a nice robust supply chain for almost everything his forces need.


So... it's kind of a Sophie's Choice situation. They could stand and fight at Earth and have humanity be virtually wiped out fighting the main fleet, or they could run and also be virtually wiped out after Earth is destroyed.

[taalismn]

Indeed. Does Exedore even say that the Zentraedi fleet CAN'T jump out?

Considering that the SDF's crew doesn't even know they have the Matrix until Exedore tells them why they're being hunted, it's doubtful they'd be able to find the damn thing aboard ship, figure out, and have it up and running in time to fuel up the fleet in time to Fold out before Dolza's armada can arrive and track them.

That's on top of Seto's points.

'Exodus' would have to diverge even earlier with an early discovery of the Matrix, and that might result in even more butterflies.

[mech798]

Indeed. Does Exedore even say that the Zentraedi fleet CAN'T jump out?

Considering that the SDF's crew doesn't even know they have the Matrix until Exedore tells them why they're being hunted, it's doubtful they'd be able to find the damn thing aboard ship, figure out, and have it up and running in time to fuel up the fleet in time to Fold out before Dolza's armada can arrive and track them.

That's on top of Seto's points.

'Exodus' would have to diverge even earlier with an early discovery of the Matrix, and that might result in even more butterflies.

Well, I have little time to do it, since I have paying assignments (curse you money! Why must you get in the way of fun stuff!), but one opening might be that Hayes decides that Gloval's right, or at least he doesn't want to put all of his eggs in one basket and Breetai details a part of the Imperial Fleet to carry off refugees-- It's a million ships, and if you assume 5K humans can fit in a landing craft on a long-term basis (not unlikely, since they're explicitly designed as troop carriers), you can get fifty million people offworld with 10,000 landing ships-- and the numbers go up from there.

The zentraedi who stay behind, say 3/4ths of the fleet, plus the grand cannon, plus whatever earth units stay behind, open up on Dolza the moment he appears. They lose, granted, but even so, betwen the GC and the fact that they're not planning on living, Dolza's forces are pretty battered-- and there's no SDF-1. It'll take them some time to get everything fixed.

Now what I would do, in order to avoid the problem of "okay, then they all die from protoculture depletion), is that some components of the SDF-1 were left on earth, including a large storage unit full of seeds-- they get released, do their magic and the earth is covered in protoculture that produces non-fertile seeds. The Matrix is what was needed to create fertile seeds so the supply is still limited, but it gives the zentraedi/robotech masters a leese on life and a reason to not immediately abandon earth to track down the fleet.

Meanwhile, the exile fleet is heading off, splitting up and remember that this means they have a lot of scientists trying to figure out wehre and what the protoculture matrix is. Maybe they hit some factory satellites of various sizes on their way, but now they're in space, harder to find, but being chased by the Invid.

It also creates an interesting dynamic-- the humans are far more dependent on the zentraedi, so the society that you'll see evolve is likely to, amusingly enough see less militant (culture contaminated) zentreadi mixed with more militant (who got their planet nuked) humans. Not only that, but with a functioning military high command you'll see a more organized military that likely has a much larger zentraedi influence.


*Note if I do this I'm going to use the RRG's protoculture because A. It makes as much or more sense as anything else that HG has said and B. it makes it solely a popwer source. Also, I'd make the assumption that SMLH doesn't work because the whole protoculture thing mainly works if it is by far the BEST power source in the galaxy with no easy alternative unless you're much, much more advanced than even the masters.

[Seto Kaiba]

Well, I have little time to do it, since I have paying assignments (curse you money! Why must you get in the way of fun stuff!), but one opening might be that Hayes decides that Gloval's right, or at least he doesn't want to put all of his eggs in one basket and Breetai details a part of the Imperial Fleet to carry off refugees-- It's a million ships, and if you assume 5K humans can fit in a landing craft on a long-term basis [...]

Well, that too might be a bit dodgy... Hayes wasn't exactly the sole authority there, he would've had to sell the idea of doing mass evacuations into space to the other brass who thought Gloval was full of it. They'd also have to be willing to trust the guy who was, until a few hours earlier, avidly shooting at them. Of course, there's also the slight problem that Exedore and Breetai barely had time to introduce themselves and say "Oh, by the way, our boss is coming to kill us all" before they had Dolza's entire fleet parked on their doorstep.

Meanwhile, the exile fleet is heading off, splitting up and remember that this means they have a lot of scientists trying to figure out wehre and what the protoculture matrix is. Maybe they hit some factory satellites of various sizes on their way, but now they're in space, harder to find, but being chased by the Invid.

But still being chased by a murder-happy Dolza who only lost a few hundred thousand ships to the Grand Cannon, without having the SDF-1 around to wipe his entire fleet out... Dolza who knows where these factory satellites are, and has a good reason to chase them and kill them all.

Not only that, but with a functioning military high command you'll see a more organized military that likely has a much larger zentraedi influence.

As opposed to where they are in RTSC, where the UEEF is about two inches from BECOMING the next Zentradi Army?

[mech798]

Well, I have little time to do it, since I have paying assignments (curse you money! Why must you get in the way of fun stuff!), but one opening might be that Hayes decides that Gloval's right, or at least he doesn't want to put all of his eggs in one basket and Breetai details a part of the Imperial Fleet to carry off refugees-- It's a million ships, and if you assume 5K humans can fit in a landing craft on a long-term basis [...]

Well, that too might be a bit dodgy... Hayes wasn't exactly the sole authority there, he would've had to sell the idea of doing mass evacuations into space to the other brass who thought Gloval was full of it. They'd also have to be willing to trust the guy who was, until a few hours earlier, avidly shooting at them. Of course, there's also the slight problem that Exedore and Breetai barely had time to introduce themselves and say "Oh, by the way, our boss is coming to kill us all" before they had Dolza's entire fleet parked on their doorstep.

There'd have to be some changes, but honestly, the UEEF was pretty stupid because... well dude's Breetai showed up with one million ships. One million or 4.8 million is pretty much the same in the "we can totally murder you" olympics. Fundamentally, Breetai doesn't need to be clever here-- so you can assume he's telling the truth. And to be honest, if you want to make things a little more dicy, well, Hayes had most of the top brass with him in the bunker, so if he could say, convince the guards to ensure that they all suffered an unfortunate case of death, he could just send out the orders-- everyone else is already assuming the HQ complex is the legetimate source of orders. We can assume that Breetai had a bit more warning-- perhaps Azonia tells him what she's done before it gets to Dolza.

Meanwhile, the exile fleet is heading off, splitting up and remember that this means they have a lot of scientists trying to figure out wehre and what the protoculture matrix is. Maybe they hit some factory satellites of various sizes on their way, but now they're in space, harder to find, but being chased by the Invid.

But still being chased by a murder-happy Dolza who only lost a few hundred thousand ships to the Grand Cannon, without having the SDF-1 around to wipe his entire fleet out... Dolza who knows where these factory satellites are, and has a good reason to chase them and kill them all.

he does-- but if 2/3rds of the Imperial fleet stays behind, that's still a BIG battle, especially given that there's no sign that the zentraedi had ever used the grand fleet as a combat formation. they'll win, but they'll lose far more than a few hundred thousand ships, esepcially given the potential for ships to be heavily damaged.

Then there's the fact that sooner or later, Dolza's going to have to tell the MAster's that "oh, um, yeah, I think I might have destroyed the Holy Grail. Sorry about that." There's going to be some disorder in the ranks. Then there's the fact that Dolza doens't know the fleet's fled as eyt-- he's certainly not going to start interrogating any surviving micronians-- that's how the whole mess got started. So far all he knows, Breetai (who is considered to be a great genius in battle), may have his undamaged fleet collected, and be waiting for Dolza to send all of his forces out to attack them where he can gain local superiority.
Then there's the problem of the Invid, who while they don't know what has happened are likely to find out relatively quickly.

The BIG questions of course is how effective are the zentraedi at tracking FTL jumps? It took Breetai some time to find the SDF-1, but then that was one ship and was trying to get lost. Is it an easy process? Does it require big fixed installations? They tracked the SDF-1 to pluto, but that was fairly short ranged, and not happening in the context of a major battle. WE also don't know how long such tracks remain tracable-- if the evactuation fleet left a day before the Grand Fleet jumped in, could they detect and track them? Granted, Robotech has always been very vague on how big a space we're talking about (sometimes they talk about "far" galaxies, and other time the implication is that most of the action is happening in the milky way), but there is a lot of room to hide.

Presuming at some point the robotech masters find out that the SDF-1 wasn't destroyed and that the seeds left on earth were just from a storage unit, Dolza's probably going to get some very specific and blunt orders-- the masters *cannot* risk losing the SDF-1 and the fact that he risked it once is probably in the line of a "fail once" offense in Secretary Gates' terms.

Not only that, but with a functioning military high command you'll see a more organized military that likely has a much larger zentraedi influence.

As opposed to where they are in RTSC, where the UEEF is about two inches from BECOMING the next Zentradi Army?

Well, becoming the incompetent shade of what the Zentradi could be. . But the UEEF was making do with anyone who survived, which is why a teenager with no formal training somehow made it to become CINC. "If you've got a lot of zentraedi AND human high command people left, it's likely you're talking a far more formalized military organization with a lot more training and honestly, a lot less tolerance for some of the idiocy we saw in robotech. Remember while Khyron was considered a goof, even he regularly came up with more effective plans than the people we saw in Southern Cross and New Generation.

For example, I fully expect that unlike the Ikazuichis, a hypothetical zentrad/human hybrid ship would make provision for actually allowing you to land your mecha after you launch them.

[Seto Kaiba]

There'd have to be some changes, but honestly, the UEEF was pretty stupid because... well dude's Breetai showed up with one million ships. One million or 4.8 million is pretty much the same in the "we can totally murder you" olympics.

Well, there's no denying that the UEDF in Robotech suffers from a MASSIVE case of adaptation-induced idiocy*, but this actually makes it worse. The UEDF brass flatly denied that Macross Island had been attacked by aliens... and might never have actually told Earth's inhabitants they'd already ended up in an interstellar war. Suddenly having a million huge warships landing all over Earth would cause, AT BEST, widespread panic and rioting. If the UEDF suddenly announced it wanted people to leave Earth on those ships, most could be forgiven for thinking the aliens had quietly overthrown Earth's legitimate government, which could lead to armed resistance by soldiers and civilians alike.

The idea that everyone would willingly pick up and leave at a moment's notice is just beyond unrealistic. If they told all of Earth's population that aliens were probably going to destroy the planet, they'd have an even bigger problem on their hands with people thinking it's a ruse perpetrated by invaders AND people fighting over "seats" on the evacuation ships. It would end up being absolute pandemonium that would probably prevent any kind of meaningful evacuation.

Theeeeeeeeeeeeen... there's the slight logistical problem that most of those ships can't exactly land, meaning there's gotta be some way to embark millions of people to ships that can, at best, either set down way out at sea or hover a few hundred meters above the ground.


* Vrlitwhai's Adoclas fleet in the original was a little over 1,200 ships... not a million. Much, MUCH easier for the Unity Government's military brass to dismiss as not particularly threatening, considering their own fleet was already about one-tenth that size and carrying enough anti-warship thermonuclear reaction ordinance and fighters carrying same to more than level the playing field... and any continent that looks at it funny.

Plus they probably felt that, if the Zentradi invasion held off for a few more months to a year, they'd have a couple of other Grand Cannon systems online and potentially a second Macross-class super dimension fortress to field against them.

And to be honest, if you want to make things a little more dicy, well, Hayes had most of the top brass with him in the bunker, so if he could say, convince the guards to ensure that they all suffered an unfortunate case of death, he could just send out the orders-- everyone else is already assuming the HQ complex is the legetimate source of orders.

Considering the huge number of operators in the central command chamber and the fact that it's a distributed world-wide military, I don't think whacking a handful of the brass is going to be enough to let Hayes dictate policy on his own. If he wasn't careful and incredibly lucky, it'd land him in front of a firing squad for murder and/or treason (on the assumption he wanted to become a dictator).

he does-- but if 2/3rds of the Imperial fleet stays behind, that's still a BIG battle, especially given that there's no sign that the zentraedi had ever used the grand fleet as a combat formation. they'll win, but they'll lose far more than a few hundred thousand ships, esepcially given the potential for ships to be heavily damaged.

What battle? Dolza's forces steamrollered Earth's defenses in a matter of seconds and would've handed Breetai's rebels their collective arses if not for the SDF-1's intervention. It would've been a fight, but it would've been a very short-lived fight considering Breetai and Minmay were what motivated Khyron to lend his forces to the counterattack.

Then there's the fact that sooner or later, Dolza's going to have to tell the MAster's that "oh, um, yeah, I think I might have destroyed the Holy Grail. Sorry about that." There's going to be some disorder in the ranks. Then there's the fact that Dolza doens't know the fleet's fled as eyt-- he's certainly not going to start interrogating any surviving micronians-- that's how the whole mess got started.

Nah, he would likely have the wherewithal to tell whether or not the SDF-1 was on the planet before he started shooting... so it's not likely he'd have to report that to the Masters at any point. Once the kid gloves Breetai was using were off, he would have very little reason to be gentle about taking Zor's battlefortress after he hunted it down. With limited resources and no fold system, the SDF-1 isn't going to run far... or for very long, and Dolza's got enough reinforcements to spread his forces across the galaxy to make sure he captures it.

The BIG questions of course is how effective are the zentraedi at tracking FTL jumps? It took Breetai some time to find the SDF-1, but then that was one ship and was trying to get lost. Is it an easy process? Does it require big fixed installations?

As far as we've seen, it doesn't take any fixed installations or anything special like that to track a folding ship... a head start would give them a bit of a chance to gain a lead, but they'd catch up simply by dint of the fact that they're not dragging one enormously important piece of deadweight.

[mech798]

What battle? Dolza's forces steamrollered Earth's defenses in a matter of seconds and would've handed Breetai's rebels their collective arses if not for the SDF-1's intervention. It would've been a fight, but it would've been a very short-lived fight considering Breetai and Minmay were what motivated Khyron to lend his forces to the counterattack.

I doubt that-- for one thing, Dozla's forces are surrounding the earth-- that means that at any given point, if the Imperial fleet was concentrated, they can use the mass of the earth to block off a lot of potential fire power. Also, they only have a 4/1 advantage, which actually isn't that great for an aggressor, especially if the enemy is looking to hurt you rather than survive. Finally, there's the fact that unlike Breetai's forces, the Grand fleet wasn't a *combat* formation. Individual flotillas, and squadron's within it, yes, but the whole thing? No. That alone drastically reduces it's combat capabilities as can be seen by the fact that Dolza pretty much unloads on earth and assumes his mass will carry the day. That is, IMHO a terrible strategy because not only does it allow the Imperial fleet to gain local parity or even superiority (you need to fire on him? Ooops, those ships are on the other side of the earth). it also frees the defense force from having to worry about the earth-- the population of hte earth is gone after the bombardment so suddenly the Imperial fleet is free to manuever rather than even having to think about defending a now dead population. Not to mention that Dolza was caught *completely* by surprise when the GC fired-- suddenly, are those ships dropping down to hide or are they luring us in for another shot from a previously undetected weapon-- remember that the micronians have basically been a never ending series of unpleasant suprrises for the zentraedi at this point.

Then there's the fact that even before the Minmei plan, Exedor was spelling out what command units they had to kill. So suddenly you're not just losing shipos-- but the Admiral of the 21st battle fleet-- remembering that the rebels have perfect intelligence of who is commanding what. Fleets that lose their command staff are no longer effective combat formations until they get a new command staff and that's a process that can take months.

As for earth and khyron's forces--they're both unimportant. Armors can barely even handle a Tou Redir, much less anything larger, and Khyron had a command of a small fleet-- he was brought in because he had a good record at getting stuff done rather than for any mass of forces and the big fight around earth is going to depend on ships.

So Dolza ends up with a trashed fleet missing a lot of it's command staff, a destroyed world, and about 250-300K ships that left, likely including a lot of the heavier classes. He can throw ships after them, but at this point it's chasing an organized force with a mob, and the Zentraedi are certain to have had caess in their history where that turned out poorly for them.

he's also got the problem that the Invid are now likely to come for him-- the collapse of the Empire happened relatively fast after the canonical destruction of the Grand Fleet, and now while it's not destroyed, it's damaged. Does he stick with earth, repair his forces and try to hold off the Invid? The fleeing forces don't have to defend anything-- they no longer have any territory to defend (see, destroying earth: idiotic decisions of).

So Dolza's unlikely to do anything in the near term, save possibly commune with the spirit of King Pyrrhus on the problems of overly costly victory.

[Seto Kaiba]

I doubt that-- for one thing, Dozla's forces are surrounding the earth-- that means that at any given point, if the Imperial fleet was concentrated, they can use the mass of the earth to block off a lot of potential fire power.

These are ships whose weapons explicitly have a range measured in light seconds. At best, maybe half the Grand Fleet's not going to be able to shoot right away... but it won't take them long to fly around the planet and bring their guns to bear.

Also, they only have a 4/1 advantage, which actually isn't that great for an aggressor, especially if the enemy is looking to hurt you rather than survive.

Less than 4:1 if there are some Zentradi ships fleeing rather than fighting... and the smaller party would be fighting with the distinct disadvantage of having had its chain of command undermined by Breetai and a selection of his troops legging it. A small, uncoordinated force lashing out at random is going to be neatly picked to pieces by a large, coordinated force with a well-applied chain of command.

Finally, there's the fact that unlike Breetai's forces, the Grand fleet wasn't a *combat* formation. Individual flotillas, and squadron's within it, yes, but the whole thing? No.

Yes it was. They explicitly don't have anything that ISN'T for combat... to such an extent that it's a major plot point that the Zentradi have no concept of ANYTHING not explicitly for combat. Look at the coordination with which the "Grand Fleet" folds into Earth orbit and annihilates the planet... the planet which was their primary target. Destroying the "contaminated" troops was quite literally an afterthought. That's how little of a threat they were to him... without Zor's Battlefortress in the equation, the forces Breetai had were no more than an afterthought.

Not to mention that Dolza was caught *completely* by surprise when the GC fired-- suddenly, are those ships dropping down to hide or are they luring us in for another shot from a previously undetected weapon-- remember that the micronians have basically been a never ending series of unpleasant suprrises for the zentraedi at this point.

The Grand Cannon was able to fire ONCE... in Robotech, Earth didn't have any other tricks. In the series, what carried the day for the Earth Forces and their allies was the technology Zor himself had left behind on his battlefortress. Without it, the battle would've been a slam dunk for the loyal Zentradi who drastically outnumber the rebels.

Then there's the fact that even before the Minmei plan, Exedor was spelling out what command units they had to kill. So suddenly you're not just losing shipos-- but the Admiral of the 21st battle fleet-- remembering that the rebels have perfect intelligence of who is commanding what.

Yes, and they still only won by killing Dolza and blowing up his fortress... which took the entire fleet with it. Without that, they're pissing into the wind. They only got that far thanks to Minmei's songs. No Minmei, no SDF-1, no victory. Just a brutally short, painfully one-sided fleet action and Dolza's in hot pursuit.

Fleets that lose their command staff are no longer effective combat formations until they get a new command staff and that's a process that can take months.

'cept for that "chain of command" thing that usually indicates who takes over if the boss gets whacked... what saved them back in the series was that they were able to disorient the enemy by targeting command ships long enough for the SDF-1 to carry the day by blowing the entire enemy fleet up. That was, if you recall, the actual plan they voice in the series... that's all they expected to achieve between Breetai's forces and Minmei... disorienting the enemy long enough to not get horribly killed while they took the fight to Dolza's flagship. Remember how the Zentradi reacted to finding out Dolza was coming for them? They concluded they were doomed right away.

Without that plan, they're significantly outnumbered, massively outgunned, and facing a coordinated foe who has just taken their one source of reinforcements out of the game entirely.

So Dolza ends up with a trashed fleet missing a lot of it's command staff, a destroyed world, and about 250-300K ships that left, likely including a lot of the heavier classes. He can throw ships after them, but at this point it's chasing an organized force with a mob, and the Zentraedi are certain to have had caess in their history where that turned out poorly for them.

This is a conclusion that's completely at odds with pretty much everything indicated about the battle in the series... and is also running counter to your own earlier assumptions about fleet dispositions.

[jaymz]

To the OP.....so Robotech Galactica?

[mech798]

To the OP.....so Robotech Galactica?

Not so much-- more like "large, space born civilization" Even say, 5000 LST's with 10-20 thousand people on each is a LOT of people. More than enough to produce a spaceborn infrastructure.

More importantly, it's a group that knows just how vulnerable the zentreadi are to old-fashioned psi-ops. Dozla has his fleet-what's left of it. The assumption that it's a curb stomp is not entirely certaom-- not only is the fleet facing an enemy who can dodge around the planet, Dolza also folded out in a nice parade formation so if you assume that the first reaction was "start shooting" his advance units could get plenty chewed up before the command base even appears. This is another excellent reason to wonder just how effective a combat formation the grand fleet is-- it folds out, very ominously, very nicely, but it's well in range of the imperial fleet's weapons, and the primary command node doesn't fold in until sometime later. So Dozla's in no position to exert command and control over his forces, even though he was clearly designating targets. Having just had his main commander turn on him, it's an open question if that was because he was a control freak or because he didn't want to risk having another command dysfunction.

By the numbers, the Grand Fleet is certain to win-- just like Consul Varro was certain to win at Cannae. Having a materially superior force doesn't always immunize you from defeat or just a massive loss of material in the process of your victory. Remember that the GC took out hundreds of thousands of ships by itself, and it was evidently a surprise to the zentraedi. GC plus every one of the Imperial fleet simply opening up the moment the fold operation started could dramatically shift things. Heck, every Imperial fleet ship knows it's under sentence of death and we've seen that the zentraedi aren't afraid of death-- and even a tou redir makes a dandy suicide missile.

Now of course the reason all this happened as it did was that Macross isn't worried about the battle-- the battle is the backdrop for the main characters and what they're doing. it's a conceit rather like, to use your example, BSG 2003, where Ron Moore flat out said he had no idea how or why the Cylons were tracking the fleet in 33-- that wasn't his intent in writing the episode. Equally, the GC and Imperial fleet didn't nuke the grand fleet upon defold because it would have truly wrecked what was supposed to be moment of high tension. That's why Minmei's song wasn't greated by a "wow, hey Graznok, look, Breetai's trying to transmit something to us. Good thing Dolza ordered all the codes changed and for us to refuse any communications." "Yeah, Bork-I wonder what it was?"
"Dunno, but it's moot since we just totally vaporized the ship it was coming from."

But that being said, the nature of the victory and/or loss isn't a tactical question-- it's a story question. As the story was written, (in Macross, I think, given how the later story went, it's open to debate in Robotech), the military solution was not the solution, it was never the solution and to be honest, that's a fairly common, if not universal theme in Macross with "nuke the bad guy" plans generally being a sign that whoever is giving them is doing it wrong. Sadly, that's not the case in robotech with the story trends moving towards "nuking the bad guy" as being a great idea, which is one reason that while I like the game, I'm not overly interested in any later cartoons or comics-- the story has just moved in too depressing a direction.

But regardless, in this Dolza can't just start hunting the heroes-- not right away for the simple reason that he's abandoned the entire empire. Now in this alt-reality, the bombardment does free the seeds that were being studied on earth and while they're a finite (the plants produce seterile seeds) resource, they're still a resource. This is mainly to explain why the heroes just can't leave and let the robotech empire die on its own since it now has a long if finite leese on life. So the Robotech masters are screaming at him to protect earth AND get his massive tailbone and as much of the fleet as he can spare to keep the invid from totally destroying their empire. A few thousand, or even hundred thousand renegade ships? They can wait. They have to wait because the real fight is coming for the Empire in the form of hordes of furious invid. Earth has to be protected and terraformed in hopes that the arriving science masters can figure out some way to clone/breed/beg and plead the protoculture into producing fertile seeds.

Meanwhile the human/zentradi group are leaving-- heading out as far as they can, perhaps folding and then spending some time in normal space costing at near C velocities. After a decade or so, they'll be prepared to do what they did to breetai's fleet, only this time in such a way that Dolza won't be able to just summon the Grand Fleet and destroy them. Won't he be surprised with his entire fleet turns on him? Who knows, maybe they can get *dolza* to turn on the masters. Meanwhile, there's plenty to do in terms of rescuing abandoned Tirolian colonies, making connectiions with races that are unhappy with the Master's, setting up planetary and deep space colonies and hey, there's some rumor that this "Regess" whatever the heck that is may be slightly less homicidal than the regent. You, you, and you, you're expendable-go talk to her.

[jaymz]

I don't know. Still seems it's essentially galactica. That's not necessarily a bad thing.

[Seto Kaiba]

To the OP.....so Robotech Galactica?

Man, I was thinking it loud... but I wasn't gonna SAY it.

[ShadowLogan]

To the OP.....so Robotech Galactica?

Man, I was thinking it loud... but I wasn't gonna SAY it.

Wasn't thinking it about this topic, but Macross Saga at times makes me think of the original Galactica (not very familiar w/the new one) for some reason.

[mech798]

To the OP.....so Robotech Galactica?

Man, I was thinking it loud... but I wasn't gonna SAY it.

Wasn't thinking it about this topic, but Macross Saga at times makes me think of the original Galactica (not very familiar w/the new one) for some reason.

It actually does map nicely to the original galactica-- you have a fleet and by and large, life is normal in that fleet unless something goes wrong. The 2003 BSG isn't a good fit because it really kicks up the DOOOOOMMMMMM! factor to 20 and the fleet is ALWAYS ten seconds from death.

Then there's the ending. I shall say nothing about my opinion of that then to state that compared to the ending of BSG 2003, every last bit of robotech cannon or none, and yes, I'm including the Meltradi moon maidens with katana and sailor suit outfit... is positively Shakespearian in comparison. (Why no, I wasn't a fan of the last 20 minutes of BSG2003, whatever made you think that? )

[mech798]

I don't know. Still seems it's essentially galactica. That's not necessarily a bad thing.

Yeah, you could do that-- to be honest, the main reason for this sort of AU is to A. allow the zentreadi to be a thing instead of essentially writing them out.

B. keep the robotech empire as a thing so you have more stories than just "Fight the invid. Fight some more invid. Fight the robotech masters."

We don't know a lot about the empire, but the Sentinals weren't happy with the master's and yet they had (evidently) some freedom of action. My general take is that the Robotech Empire is not so much a classical evil empire as it is a loosely organized colonial empire. Pay your taxes and keep from doing some other things and the Empire is fairly hands off-- get out of line and meet the nice Mr. Dolza. But Mr. Dolza also keeps the invid and pirates from killing you.*

*which is an itneresting point--what do they use for police forces? The zentradi clearly aren't suitable, given their vulnerability to culture and general "there is no such thing as too much firepower". So you need to have something in between local authority and the zentraedi that you can use for more limited military action/police enforcement.

Edit: Make the universe narratively BIG. There are millions of habitable worlds out there, including many that have never heard about any of this stuff. The setting should reflect that.

[taalismn]

That's where the Turolian Bioroids come in. They're the police. Fast and specialized; take out dissidents quickly. Stealthed Terminators for precise removal/assassination/elimination.
If the situation REALLY goes south, call back the Zentraedi to re-arrange the neighborhood until the natives behave themselves.

[Seto Kaiba]

The 2003 BSG isn't a good fit because it really kicks up the DOOOOOMMMMMM! factor to 20 and the fleet is ALWAYS ten seconds from death.

I dunno... in Robotech, humanity is always about ten seconds from death, and scattering into the galaxy with a single, partly-disabled ship carrying the sole source of fuel seems like a good way to shave that down from ten seconds to five. A single good hit and the entire human race is HOSED.

[mech798]

The 2003 BSG isn't a good fit because it really kicks up the DOOOOOMMMMMM! factor to 20 and the fleet is ALWAYS ten seconds from death.

I dunno... in Robotech, humanity is always about ten seconds from death, and scattering into the galaxy with a single, partly-disabled ship carrying the sole source of fuel seems like a good way to shave that down from ten seconds to five. A single good hit and the entire human race is HOSED.

Yeah-- but for humanity, especially in robotech, there really ARE no good options. Running away at least gives the chance that Dolza won't find you/run out of protoculture/ get recalled.

Unfortunately, robotech for a variety of reasons gone over before isn't as, well consistent as Macross. For example, the Master's can't make it to earth when Dolza had no difficulty-- which seems odd. Why did they short themselves? If the UEG had no problem making use of the counterculture scavanged from his fleet, why didn't hte masters just mention "Hey, we need about 10,000 of your ships to fuel our ships?"

They don't because there was no way to make that work given the footage.


One thing I'd like to see out of affection for the old series would be if I ever invent polywell fusion, to drop about 100 million dollars to redo robotech, with all new animation and focusing on making it a truly intertwined story-- with no problem's like "wait a minute, we can't ever have the zentraedi come in contact with the masters because there's no footage of it".

[glitterboy2098]

personally i figure the master's had planned to stop at a certain robotech factory to refuel..

[Seto Kaiba]

Yeah-- but for humanity, especially in robotech, there really ARE no good options.

That's what makes it so awful... the route they ended up taking in the series was actually the BEST situation they could've ended up in. Everything else basically just means slow (or abrupt) extinction.

Running away at least gives the chance that Dolza won't find you/run out of protoculture/ get recalled.

By the same token, running away condemns the overwhelming majority of humanity to fiery death and the remainder to the slow and merciless embrace of the interstellar cold and vacuum once they become separated from the SDF-1 long enough that they either starve to death while fleeing or run out of fuel and suffocate/freeze when the ship loses power in the depths of space.

It's Sophie's choice... you're damning the overwhelming majority of humanity no matter what happens, the only question is whether they die quickly or slowly. That's some Warhammer 40,000 stuff there, bro.

Unfortunately, robotech for a variety of reasons gone over before isn't as, well consistent as Macross.

Alas, the unavoidable consequence of letting editors attempt to inexpertly rewrite a series for a younger demographic and without adequate sleep or time to sanity-check their work leads to making a big mess.

For example, the Master's can't make it to earth when Dolza had no difficulty-- which seems odd. Why did they short themselves?

Well, for that question there's a straightforward answer... the Zentradi were lugging around a massive mobile resupply port with them, and were probably equipped for considerable periods of time without resupply as a result. One of the things we see ships do when they dock at Dolza's fortress is taking on fresh supplies.

If the UEG had no problem making use of the counterculture scavanged from his fleet, why didn't hte masters just mention "Hey, we need about 10,000 of your ships to fuel our ships?"

The counterculture?

Well, I'd imagine that 1. the Masters were out of range of the Zentradi at the time (they were off in another galaxy) and 2. they may consume a lot more of the stuff since they seem to use it for more than just fuel and cloning tech.

One thing I'd like to see out of affection for the old series would be if I ever invent polywell fusion, to drop about 100 million dollars to redo robotech, with all new animation and focusing on making it a truly intertwined story-- with no problem's like "wait a minute, we can't ever have the zentraedi come in contact with the masters because there's no footage of it".

Lemme put it to you this way... if you're redoing Robotech with your fortune, you'll be redoing it without any of the IP in the original, so you won't have to worry about the Zentradi or anything like that because you won't be able to legally use 'em.

Kind of a non-issue then, since you'd have to rewrite the story to get around all of the stuff that isn't owned by Harmony Gold... essentially meaning you'd be starting almost from zero anyway.

[mech798]

Lemme put it to you this way... if you're redoing Robotech with your fortune, you'll be redoing it without any of the IP in the original, so you won't have to worry about the Zentradi or anything like that because you won't be able to legally use 'em.

Kind of a non-issue then, since you'd have to rewrite the story to get around all of the stuff that isn't owned by Harmony Gold... essentially meaning you'd be starting almost from zero anyway.

Oh, if I had a hundred million dollars to use on this, I'm comfortably certain I could convince the owners in Japan to let me use the zentreadi. Money covereth a multitude of sins.

[Seto Kaiba]

Oh, if I had a hundred million dollars to use on this, I'm comfortably certain I could convince the owners in Japan to let me use the zentreadi. Money covereth a multitude of sins.

I wouldn't bet on it... never mind that Studio Nue and Big West have a healthy and entirely justified dislike for Robotech and Harmony Gold and would never let either use their IP just based on the history that they have, have you SEEN the amount of dosh Macross has made in the last five or six years thanks to Macross Frontier? It's been like they can do no wrong.

"Remaking" Robotech with any connection to the original three shows will always be an impossible pipe dream and a really, REALLY bad idea.

[mech798]

When Breetai and the UEG made their desperate alliance (the UEG at this point didn’t fully trust Breetai, but ‘certain death’ makes for strange bedfellows) it was plain just how desperate things were. Dolza was no longer coming to capture the SDF-1, he was coming to burn the earth. He would succeed. That much was apparent to anyone. Attempting to flee, at least with a large group of people, was equally hopeless— Dolza would be able to follow. However, Breetai and Gloval pointed out that a small number of ships, perhaps as many as 20,000 could flee without being detected. Dolza had little immediate intelligence regarding the disposition of the Imperial fleet, making likely that he might simply assume those ships had been lost previous to the rebellion of the Imperial fleet or had been lost during the fleet’s rebellion.



Breetai originally desired to stay behind and fight— even if it meant certain death. After all it would be the greatest battle in the history of the Zentreadi. However Exedore pointed out that he could not remain— dying here would reduce the chances of survival for humanity and would in fact make it more likely that the Robotech Masters would continue to use the zentraedi as disposable tools of war. Ultimately, the best route to survival for the zentraedi was to spread the human culture throughout their fleets— and that meant that humanity had to survive…and Breetai was one of the best commanders in the known universe. While militaristic, the zentraedi were well aware of the importance of strategic retreats— especially as the protoculture reserves of the Empire had declined and forced the abandonment of more and more formerly vital worlds.

And so, just before the fold-in of Dolza’s fleet, 20,000 ships, loaded with as many humans and material as they could carry with such short warning, folded out.



The Conflict:



The conflict with earth was short, savage…and never in doubt. The rebel zentraedi and RDF forces opened fire the moment Dolza’s fleet appeared, but the zentreadi hdad long been prepared for such tactics. The command fortress folded in behind the moon, safely out of the way of any potential attack and the attack force smashed the Imperial fleet even as the bombardment of the earth destroyed most of the surface of that world. In the end the Grand Fleet lost just over 1.8 Million ships in return for the destruction of the Imperial fleet. The absence of the SDF-1 was explained (at least to Dolza) by the detection of a sudden protoculture bloom by the destroyed grand cannon.



The Aftermath:



The Robotech Masters were infuriated. If Dolza had destroyed the matrix… But subsequent examination showed that the protoculture bloom had come from several ruptured storage units. Zor had carried numbers of already processed seeds and this windfall, while far from the victory the recovery of hte matrix would mean, gave the Empire breathing room. The already gestated seeds on earth had to be protected and tended (once growing, the flower of life was very difficult to move) while the others had to be moved to the security of safe worlds. These seeds were productive but sterile— the plants would produce seeds that could be used for power generation, but those seeds would be non-viable for creating new plants. Nonetheless, it turned the Empires situation from “certain doom” to merely grim. However, this in turn created a security issue as the Invid would certainly try to recover the plants for their own use and had been doing just that as they rampaged through an Empire abandoned by most of its zentraedi legions.

Dolza was given strict, no-discretion orders. The majority of the fleet remained around the earth to protect the growing plants while several large detachments conveyed the remaining seeds back to the Robotech Masters. He was not to spread out his forces looking for any remnants of Breetai’s fleet, even if it did include Zor’s ship. The unspoken reason was the simple fact that the Master’s no longer trusted Dolza, and the rebellion of the Imperial Fleet had shaken them as well— who was to say that any future zentraedi attempt to find and take the fortress (if it still existed) would fare any better? That duty would have to wait until the Robotech Masters could attend to it themselves.



The Humans.



Of the 20,000 ships that fled, fully 12,000 were Quiltra Queleual’s and other fleet train ships. They had been loaded not just with refugees (those who would come) but manufacturing equipment troops and other materials that might be needed. In addition, full data copies of the world’s great libraries and a few physical examples of Earth’s culture were taken on board, including a Gutenberg bible that had the honor of after 2011 becoming the single oldest extant human written work. The SDF-1 was tranpsorted in the fold bubbles of several Zentraedi ships, this being an old and well understood process. The fleet fled as quickly as it could, while seeking to unlock the secrets of the SDF-1 that had now been explained by Breetai and Exedore. It would be just over 20 years before the UEGE (United Earth Government in Exile) and allied zentraedi forces would make their presence known.



The interregnum


In the Empire, the next 20 years proved to be interesting in the Chinese sense of the word. The damaged Grand Fleet could not spread out again— the Robotech Masters could not risk the loss of the their new stocks of protoculture. This in turn exposed large portions of the Empire to Invid attack and also resulted in several revolts although most of those revolts tended to be passive (claiming inability to contribute to the empire) rather than active. Dolza might not be able to garrison worlds, but the newly supplied monitor ships could always drop into orbit to bombard a world.

For the Invid, raids on supplies allowed them to remain in the battle, but the inability to take Earth or secure the new sources of protoculture kept them from destroying the Empire. In fact, the Regent’s practice of taking territory because that is what the Masters’; would have done hampered Invid operations, leading to many Invid legions being tied down occupying useless worlds.

In addition, the Robotech Masters started to build some larger combat ships. These ships, based on old dreadnought designs popular before the zentraedi rose resembled Zor’s fortress (insert— these are border fleet designs), and were heavily armed for their size. Officially, they were to protect Tirolean officials from Invid raids and to assist in the search for Zor’s ship while also ensuring that the zentraedi were not contaminated by culture.

Unofficially they were to ensure that Dolza did not go off the reservation again. The fact that most of these ships had main guns was not lost on the zentraedi, nor upon Dolza. But such concerns started to become less important when modified zentraedi ships along with completely new designs started to make raids against both the zentraedi and the Invid. It appeared that the scions of earth had not died out after all…





The Earth Forces.



When they had escaped, the earth had managed to load about 5,000 humans on each of the Quiltra Queleuals. The total numbers (jot including the numerically insignificant military forces) were approximately 60 million humans— a tiny number compared to the murdered billions of earth, but a number large enough to sustain a civilization and one that included the entire staffs (and their families) of a number of private and governmental research and production organizations.

In addition, the fleet had Gloval and Breetai— and Breetai knew the layout of the Empire like few others, including the parts that had been abandoned. 10 years after fleeing, he led a quick mission to recover an auxiliary fleet repair and construction station that had been abandoned due to protoculture exhaustion. While tiny (barely 100KM in diameter) compared to the vast factory satellite, the station had more production capability than earth had ever enjoyed.

Meanwhile, the matrix on the SDF-1 had been discovered and could be used…but not duplicated. Zor had included a biological “lock” in the protoculture and while there were clues where to find it’s key, those clues led to Tirol, a world that probably would not welcome visitors.

Nor was either humanity or their zentraedi allies overly interested in “talking” with the Robotech Masters. They had slaughtered earth, used the zentraedi as their organic robots, had defoliated optera… no, talking was very low on the list of things mankind wanted to do if they saw the Masters. Sadly, the Invid’s main response to seeing a human was KILL. As sympathetic as some were to the Invid, it was impossible to effectively work with them.

But with the determination born of fury and the cold realization that sooner or later the Robotech Masters would come after them, the humans devised new weapons and mecha, new warships and most importantly, a plan to bring the Robotech Masters down…



That plan is starting now.